No-Kissing for Armenia and Azerbaijan

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been talking about the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, but as may be expected with such a thorny issue, the two sides aren't exactly beating swords into plowshares.

In the event, however, the three-hour talks between Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of the CIS summit in St. Petersburg on June 9 failed to yield any progress toward overcoming the most serious remaining points of disagreement between the two sides. And on June 20, the two sides implicitly blamed each other for that failure.
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But a diplomatic source close to the talks told RFE/RL's Armenian Service that the two presidents disagreed on the future status of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. That source said Aliyev insisted that that final status not be mentioned in the interim peace accord, while Armenia insists that accord provide for the holding of a referendum among the unrecognized republic's population.

A referendum like the ones held in South Ossetia and Transdniester could be ammunition in the fight to get international recognition for the region, but Azerbaijan is very much against using something like Kosovo as a precedent here.

A couple weeks ago a US official in Yerevan brought up what could be construed in Armenia as a threat.

The United States has expressed concern about Armenia’s deepening economic relations with neighboring Iran, with a senior American diplomat warning that they might run counter to international sanctions imposed on Tehran over its controversial nuclear program.

In an equally significant development, the US charge d’affaires in Yerevan, Anthony Godfrey, also indicated that Washington is ready, in principle, to help the South Caucasus nation build a new nuclear power plant. "We are very concerned about the increasing relations with Iran," Godfrey told a news conference on June 15, commenting on multimillion-dollar energy projects planned or already implemented by the two countries.

"We are working with the rest of the international community to push Iran to comply with its international obligations [on nuclear non-proliferation]," he said. "And two new [United Nations] Security Council resolutions deal directly with investments in Iran, financial dealing with Iran. We have expressed our concerns to the government of Armenia on all levels."

Armenia has until now maintained strong political and economic ties with Iran, while being a leading per-capita recipient of US government assistance. The Islamic Republic has served as one of Armenia’s few conduits to the outside world ever since the economic blockades imposed on the small landlocked country in the early 1990s by its more hostile neighbors, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenian leaders hope that joint projects with Tehran will also reduce Armenia’s strong dependence on Russia for energy resources.

It's hard to blame Armenia for pursuing energy deals with Iran. Armenia is not rich in energy resources, and it shares a border with Iran which has large reserves of natural gas. A gas pipeline between Armenia and Iran opened in March. The US won't make many friends in Armenia if we're heard to be putting Armenia in the "Friend of Iran" category.

N-K has a presidential election coming up. It will be interesting to see if talks continue for the time being. For its part, Azerbaijan's president made some belligerent-sounding comments last Friday. One wonders if Azerbaijan will play up the Iran angle to try and drive the US closer to Azerbaijan's position.

Boasting of his energy-rich country's vast increases in military spending, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev vowed Friday to use "all means" to restore control over the separatist ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorny Karabakh.

"We will strengthen our military power and use all means to pressure Armenia," said Aliyev during a graduation ceremony at a military academy. "We will attack Armenia on all fronts -- economic, political, diplomatic and informational."