Peace Like A River


It was a wide river, mistakable for a lake or even an ocean unless you'd been wading and knew its current. Somehow I'd crossed it... Now I saw the stream regrouped below, flowing on through what might've been vineyards, pastures, orhards... It flowed between and alongside the rivers of people; from here it was no more than a silver wire winding toward the city. - Leif Enger, Peace Like A River

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Going wobbly on us?

From The Guardian:

Britain's most senior generals have issued a blunt warning to Downing Street that the military campaign in Afghanistan is facing a catastrophic failure, a development that could lead to an Islamist government seizing power in neighbouring Pakistan.
...
Lord Inge, the former chief of the defence staff, highlighted their fears in public last week when he warned of a 'strategic failure' in Afghanistan. The Observer understands that Inge was speaking with the direct authority of the general staff when he made an intervention in a House of Lords debate.

'The situation in Afghanistan is much worse than many people recognise,' Inge told peers. 'We need to face up to that issue, the consequence of strategic failure in Afghanistan and what that would mean for Nato... We need to recognise that the situation - in my view, and I have recently been in Afghanistan - is much, much more serious than people want to recognise.'
...
The warnings from Ashdown and the generals on Afghanistan will be echoed in a report this week by the all-party Commons defence select committee. MPs will say that the combination of civilian casualties, war damage and US-led efforts to eradicate lucrative poppy crops risk turning ordinary people towards the Taliban.

Hard to know what to make of this. We'll see what the report says. Lord Inge didn't support Britain's involvement in Afghanistan to begin with.

Certainly though, the concerns mentioned above are legitimate. But catastrophic failure?

The Taliban kill children. They attack schools. They attack Afghan security forces. Suicide attacks are on the increase. They are getting killed by the hundreds by Coalition forces. NATO ISAF had this in a Friday press release:

In the first incident, an estimated 50 Taliban extremists launched an attack from the village of Spin Ghbargah, and began firing on civilians traveling along the roadway. Two quick-reaction platoons of the Afghan National Police and ISAF’s Romanian force were dispatched to the ambush site.

In the second incident, 30 kilometers northeast of the first event, near the village of Shah Hasan Kheyl, Sahajoy district, an unknown number of Taliban extremists again fired on civilians traveling on Highway 1. An ANP quick-reaction force responded, and was later supported by another Romanian quick-reaction force. There were no reports of any civilian casualties.

What do the Taliban offer the citizens of Afghanistan? Nothing. The US and NATO are there working to rebuild the country. Yes, there's room for more investment, but that's a different issue than "catastrophic failure." And at a recent conference in Rome, hundreds of millions of dollars were pledged.

The Afghan national army is performing well, though the police force does need work.

Just like Iraq, let's not abandon the effort too soon. The Taliban is happy to hide among civilians, and invite collateral damage. They know headlines about civilians being killed create pressure that favors them. Let's not boost their confidence by admitting defeat.

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