National Intelligence Estimate

The ODNI has released key findings from its National Intelligence Estimate on Al Qaeda and current threats. You can download that document (PDF) here.

Among the findings:

The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al-Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.
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We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership.
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Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.
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We assess that al-Qa’ida’s Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the US population.
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We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability.
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We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United States in the past, may be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran.
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We assess that the spread of radical—especially Salafi—Internet sites, increasingly aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the West’s Muslim population is expanding, including in the United States.

Don't miss the item in bold. Iraq is central to Al Qaeda's war against the US. So how funny is that this very day Senate Democrats are seeking to surrender and flee from Iraq, no matter the consequences?

Captain Ed adds:

The NIE specifies that the main threat from AQ comes from Iraq. It calls AQI the most visible and capable unit of AQ, and the intel community believes it will expand its operations as soon as it is able. The other units of AQ have been hamstrung by global cooperation in the war on terror, but the report frets that AQ can outlast that cooperation.

This is a war we can't afford to lose.