Russia and Georgia at it again

Russia and Georgia are again ratcheting up tensions. Earlier this week, Georgia accused Russia of firing a missile near South Osseta, a Russia-leaning breakaway region of Georgia. From EurasiaNet:

In what it claims is the latest attempt in an ongoing campaign to undermine Georgian stability, Tbilisi has accused Russia of being behind an alleged August 6 air attack on Georgian territory near the South Ossetian conflict zone. Russia has categorically denied any involvement in the incident.

The Georgian Ministry of the Interior asserted that the unexploded missile, weighing about 700 kilograms, landed in a vegetable patch at about 7:30 pm on August 6 in the village of Tsitelubani, some 60 kilometers from Tbilisi and several kilometers from the conflict zone.

(See this map of the South Ossetia region. The missile somewhere in the vicinity of Gori.)

Kommersant said:

Georgian Defense Ministry experts made public their findings from a day's study of the wreckage of the missile that fell near the Georgian village of Tsitelubani Monday evening. It was a Russian-made Kh-58 antiradar guided missile 4.8 m. in length, 0.38 m. in diameter weighing 640 kg. The missile, according to the Georgian experts, carried a warhead with 140 kg. of explosives.

The Raduga Kh-58 missile is an anti-radar tactically guided missile. On Wednesday then, Georgia asked for an emergency session of the UN Security Council. RFE/RL added:

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has called on the international community to condemn Russia for allegedly firing a missile into Georgian territory.
...
Georgia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that its radar showed that two Russian Su-24 jets flew from Russia to Georgia, and fired a missile, identified by Tbilisi as a Russian-made Raduga Kh-58.

"Significantly, we have also obtained data from civil aviation radar stations, and it coincided with the radar data we had obtained from the Ministry of Defense. So, this strengthens our argument even more -- that this fact really took place, the planes did enter from the north," Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili said today.

The OSCE issued a bland diplomatic statement.

The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos, encouraged parties involved in the missile incident in Georgia to continue to show restraint in this matter and stressed that a co-operative approach should facilitate a thorough investigation into the facts.

Minister Moratinos discussed the incident over the phone with his Georgian counterpart, Gela Bezhuashvili, and Russia's First Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrey Denisov.

In Wednesday's State Dept briefing, Sean McCormack was also reticient to throw gas on the fire.

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, listen, I think we'll talk to the Georgians about what they have in mind. You know, as I said this morning, inasmuch as there are any differences, political tensions, they need to be resolved through political channels. And I know the Georgian Government has made real attempts to do that.

In the past -- let's put aside this particular incident that we're still analyzing. We would condemn any attack on a sovereign country regardless of the circumstances. In the past, the Russian Government has conducted some aerial raids that have resulted in bombs being dropped or shots being fired in Georgian territory. And we've spoken to those particular issues. So we've talked to Georgian authorities about this. We've talked to Russian authorities about this.

With respect to this particular incident, we're still trying to get a full picture of exactly what happened. But clearly, any sort of incursion into sovereign territory is something that, you know, we would condemn.

Vladimir Socor was not as reticent and wrote at the Jamestown Foundation:

The missile drop near Gori might possibly have been accidental. However, this hypothesis is undermined by Moscow’s vehement denials that the flight happened at all. Russia’s Deputy Minister and State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Grigory Karasin, the Air Force Deputy Commander-in-Chief Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Air Force Headquarters spokesman Colonel Alexander Drobyshevski (a veteran of this type of denials), and others denied in unison that any Russian air force planes had made any flights on that day in that area at all.

Consistent with a long-standing pattern, Karasin and others insinuated that Georgia had staged the violation of its own air space in order to discredit Russia. The ambassador in Tbilisi, Vyacheslav Kovalenko, “ruled out” the possibility of a Russian intrusion “because it would not be in Russia’s interest.” The logic underlying such denials has recently received the highest stamp of approval from President Vladimir Putin -- albeit in a different type of situation -- when Putin disclaimed any official complicity in journalist Anna Politkovskaya’s assassination with the argument that it would not have been in Russia’s interest.

The Russophobe blog has a jaundiced view of Russia's statements on the incident.

Is there any sentient being on the planet who thinks that if Russia had been caught red-handed it would admit being wrong and apologize? Has this ever happened in all of Russian history? If not, mentioning Russia's denial is utterly meaningless and an insult to any thinking person.

At Publius Pundit, Kim Zigfeld writes:

Drunk on lust and hatred, the neo-Soviet Union is moving to full attack mode. First it seeks to unilaterally seize the Arctic, and now, before the dust of international outrage over that reckless act of provocation has even settled, it is brazenly committing acts of war against a smaller neighbor. It's vital that the world rushes to show solidarity with Georgia, which has valiantly defeated Russia's first round of imperialism seeking to bring the nation back into the neo-Soviet fold (this included even a coup d'etat followed by an embargo). This isn't the first time Russia, obviously frustrated by its inability to bring Georgia to heel through other means, has made a military incursion into Georgian territory. How long before Georgia does what it must do and defends itself from this naked imperialism?

A motive for the incident is not clear. However, on a larger scale, Russia is strongly opposed to Georgia becoming a part of NATO. Russia is already upset with NATO encroachment into Eastern Europe. It does not want NATO right on Russia's back porch. This sounds like yet another in a long line of confronations and provocations, as Russia-Georgia relations have been sour for awhile.

To go back just a little over a year ago, in January 2006 Georgia blamed Russia for explosions on gas pipelines that cut of supplies to Georgia in the dead of winter.

In spring 2006, Russia banned Georgia wine, fruits, vegetables, and mineral water.

In July 2006, Georgian forces went into the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, another Russia-leaning breakaway region of Georgia.

In September 2006, Georgia accused four Russians of espionage. In October Russia responded by deporting some Georgian civilians.

In November 2006, Gazprom said it was going to increase the price of gas.

In March 2007, Georgia said Russian helicopters fired their weapons in the Kodori Gorge.

In late June/early July 2007, a confrontation in South Ossetia led to several deaths. I posted about that here.

Recently, Georgia has made noises about charging Gazprom transit fees to transport gas across Georgia to Armenia, and that Georgia might take some of the gas as payment. Gazprom said Georgia has no basis to charge such fees.

Also this week, in a bit of me too-ism, South Ossetia has claimed Georgia fired missiles at it.

As so, we come to this, Russia firing warning shots. Captain Ed adds at Captains Quarters:

The UN almost has to meet to review the evidence and the claim by Georgia. Russia will use its veto power to keep anything uncomfortable from happening there, but the claim will have to be made public, along with the evidence. If Georgia is correct, then Russia has apparently decided to play rough in the Caucasus -- and play incompetently at that.

Finally, if you like to view your news, here is a segment from France24 on the matter. It runs about eight minutes, and there's some more background to the frayed Russia-Georgia relations.