The situation between Georgia, and South Ossetia and Russia, is fast-moving and rapidly escalating. (Russia Today has a good timeline going. James Joyner has a good roundup at OTB, too.) From the AP,

Russia sent columns of tanks and reportedly bombed Georgian air bases Friday after Georgia launched a major military offensive Friday to retake the breakaway province of South Ossetia, threatening to ignite a broader conflict.

Hundreds of civilians were reported dead in the worst outbreak of hostilities since the province won defacto independence in a war against Georgia that ended in 1992. Witnesses said the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali was devastated.

From Dawn,

Georgia has lost control of parts of the South Ossetian rebel capital of Tskhinvali amid Russian bombardment, a spokesman for Georgia’s interior ministry said, after earlier claiming control of the city. “Russian armed forces are bombarding Tskhinvali,” the spokesman told AFP in Tbilisi.

Russian President Medvedev issued this statement, (here it is in Russian) which, to me anyway, sounded distressingly similar to Russia’s support for Serbia in 1914,

Last night, Georgian troops committed what amounts to an act of aggression against Russian peacekeepers and the civilian population in South Ossetia. What took place is a gross violation of international law and of the mandates that the international community gave Russia as a partner in the peace process.
….
In accordance with the Constitution and the federal laws, as President of the Russian Federation it is my duty to protect the lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they may be.

It is these circumstances that dictate the steps we will take now. We will not allow the deaths of our fellow citizens to go unpunished. The perpetrators will receive the punishment they deserve.

That’s hardly “let’s find a way to make peace” talk. The Azeri Press Agency has this, which is unsettling if true,

Georgian new agencies report that Russian military aircrafts bombed Vaziani base near Tbilisi at 15.10 by local time. Two bombs were reportedly dropped on the military base. No casualties are reported in the base. Gruziya Online website reports that the aircraft that bombed Vaziani base had taken off from the territory of Armenia. The agency mentions that there is an air regiment in Russian army’s 102nd base in Gumru, Armenia. According to the agreement signed between Georgia and Armenia, Armenia can not allow any other state to attack Georgia from its territory.

The Immediate Response 2008 exercise just wrapped up at the Vaziani base. Stars and Stripes has this, which I sure hope is true,

There are 127 U.S. military trainers there, of whom about 35 are civilian contractors, according to Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman. All are safe and accounted for, according to United States European Command. Though the training exercise ended Thursday, soldiers are still in the country, though nowhere near the conflict, according to EUCOM’s Lt. Cmdr. Corey Barker. The Marines have already left.

By the way, as Immediate Response was going on, Russia just happened to hold its own military exercise in the North Caucasus. That exercise involved the 58th Army, which, according to news reports, is involved in Russia’s counterattack? Hmmm. Was Russia getting things in place?

Yulia Latynina has a good column pointing out Russia’s ties to South Ossetia,

So, why is this a victory over the siloviki — those in the Russian ruling elite with close ties to the state security organs? Because there is no way the regime in South Ossetia can be in any sense called “separatist.” Who there is a separatist? The head of the local KGB, Anatoly Baranov, used to head the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian Republic of Mordovia. The head of the South Ossetian Interior Ministry, Mikhail Mindzayev, served in the Interior Ministry of Russia’s North Ossetia. The South Ossetian “defense minister,” Vasily Lunev, used to be military commissar in Perm Oblast, and the secretary of South Ossetia’s Security Council, Anatoly Barankevich, is a former deputy military commissar of Stavropol Krai. So who exactly is a separatist in this government? South Ossetian “prime minister” Yury Morozov?

This has been a long time in coming. Here’s a brief timeline.

-In January 2006 Georgia blamed Russia for explosions on gas pipelines that cut of supplies to Georgia in the dead of winter.

-In spring 2006, Russia banned Georgia wine, fruits, vegetables, and mineral water.

-In July 2006, Georgian forces went into the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, another Russia-leaning breakaway region of Georgia.

-In September 2006, Georgia accused four Russians of espionage. In October Russia responded by deporting some Georgian civilians.

-In November 2006, Gazprom said it was going to increase the price of gas.

-In March 2007, Georgia said Russian helicopters fired their weapons in the Kodori Gorge.

-In late June/early July 2007, a confrontation in South Ossetia led to several deaths. I posted about that here.

-Around that same time, Georgia has made noises about charging Gazprom transit fees to transport gas across Georgia to Armenia, and that Georgia might take some of the gas as payment. Gazprom said Georgia had no basis to charge such fees.

-A year ago practically to the day, in a bit of me too-ism, South Ossetia has claimed Georgia fired missiles at it. And, Georgia said Russian jets fired a missile into Georgia near South Ossetia.

-In November 2007, Georgia said Russia sent more troops and equipment to Abkhazia. Russia denied it.

-In April 2008, war was close to breaking out in Abkhazia. Georgia says Russia shot down a drone.

-In June and July 2008, there were several explosions in Abkhazia.

Vladimir Socor adds,

On July 3 an assassination attempt targeted Dmitry Sanakoyev, head of the Tbilisi-backed interim administration of South Ossetia, which controls at least one third of the region’s territory. The blast injured Sanakoyev’s bodyguards. On July 9 Moscow demonstratively acknowledged that four Russian Air Force planes had flown a mission over South Ossetia. That action sought to deter Georgia from flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), thus blinding Tbilisi to Russian and proxy military movements in the area. A series of roadside bomb blasts targeted Georgian police patrols. During the second half of July and the first days of August, Russian-commanded Ossetian troops under the authority of Russian-led South Ossetian authorities fired repeatedly at Georgian-controlled villages, forcing Georgian police to fire back defensively.

And here we are. Russia is, to put it mildly, opposed to Georgia entering in NATO, is upset over Kosovo, and in my mind, Russia uses Abkhazia and Sout Ossetia to make life miserable for Georgia for even considering joining NATO.

Here is video of a press conference with a spokesman for the South Ossetian President. Pray for peace in Georgia. This could get worse before it gets better. As Ed Morrissey writes, “If Georgia doesn’t seize South Ossetia outright quickly, then cooler heads need to get involved to push the Russians and Georgians apart.”